Financial and insurance risk modelling | UniBG Economics & Finance

Financial and insurance risk modelling

Year: 2
Semester: 1
Lecturer: Prof. Francesca Maggioni

Hours: 48
ECTS: 6

Educational Goals

The course aims to provide the student the quantitative tools for evaluation and modelling the intertemporal risk in finance and insurance. 
Techniques for modelling multi-period investment problems such as dynamic programming and multistage stochastic programming will be introduced.
A special focus will be devoted to Economic Scenario Generator (ESG) to generate coherent and market consistent scenarios for various asset classes. Efficient scenario generation methods including quasi-Monte Carlo, moment matching, K-means will also be presented and applied to Asset Liability Management (ALM) and Pension Funds Management (PFM). An emphasis on the subject of the Individual Retirement Pension will be given.

At the end of the course, the student will be able to:

  • Understand the Economic Scenario Generator to generate coherent and market consistent scenarios. 
  • Model dynamic real-world problems in finance and insurance as optimization models, including dynamic risk measures.
  • Formulate ALM and PFM via dynamic programming and multistage stochastic programming.
  • Implement mathematical optimization models for ALM and PFM in the AMPL environment.
  • Generate coherent and market consistent scenarios in the MATLAB environment. 
  • Assess the solution of the implemented models and interpret the results in a decision-making perspective.
Course Content

The course will discuss and present the methods and techniques that are relevant for evaluation and modelling the intertemporal risk in finance and insurance. 

Specifically, the course will cover the following topics:

  • Economic Scenario Generator (ESG).
  • Scenario generation and tree construction: Monte Carlo, quasi-Monte Carlo, moment matching, K-means, scenario reduction.
  • Dynamic Risk measures.
  • Dynamic Programming for multi period investment problems.
  • Multistage Stochastic Programming for multi period investment problems.
  • Asset Liability Management (ALM) using dynamic programming and multistage stochastic programming.
  • Pension fund management (PFM) using dynamic programming and multistage stochastic programming (defined benefit and defined contribution). 
  • Individual Retirement Pension via stochastic programming. 
Teaching Methods

The course consists of traditional theoretical lectures and practical lab sessions (using AMPL and MATLAB software). The emphasis will be on implementing the models using AMPL and scenario generation using MATLAB software. Both traditional lectures and practical sessions aim at fostering participation and class discussion.

 

Assessment and Evaluation

The exam consists of two parts:

  • Oral discussion about applied assignments and case studies (50% of the final grade).Students may work in small groups or individually.
  • Final oral exam (50% of the final grade).